The Plane that Flew too Soon
Deep inside a Bunker in Berlin, Adolf Hitler reviewed the latest intelligence reports in from his Abwehr agents in the United States. The report detailed their estimates at US industrial production. At their peak in 1943, his finely tuned German factories were churning out just over 11 bomber aircraft per day, a fine achievement made possible by German superiority. As he skimmed down the page his eyes focused on the number of bombers his agents projected. When he saw the projection of 35 bombers per day coming off of US assembly lines, he couldn’t help himself from laughing. He showed the report to his top leaders. They too could prevent themselves from laughing and scoffing at the figure. This report was either some sort of joke, or his agents had wildly miscalculated. No country could possibly outproduce their factories, let alone triple them.
In fairness, Hitler and his leaders were not completely wrong. The United States did not produce 35 bombers per day. They made 80 per day. Almost ten times the number the Germans were able to make. In total, the United States would produce over 100,000 bombers. The Germans managed 18,499.
In 1942, the War in Europe was still very much undecided. Londoners lived under constant threat of bombs falling, and constant worry of what would happen if they couldn’t fend off the German Luftwaffe. As the final two allies remaining in the western front, The US and Great Britain banded together. One of the agreements they reached was in aircraft production. The US would focus on bombers, which could easily manage to fly the distance from factories in the US to the battlefields of Europe. The English would focus on making fighter planes which could fly directly from the factories into battle to replace the planes they lost daily.
The agreement worked perfectly and was instrumental in the allies beating back the Nazi air attack, and ultimately winning the war. It was while the war raged that British Air Minister Lord Brabazon of Tara realized a shortcoming. While the divide and conquer strategy had been doing wonders for the war effort, it would put the British at a large disadvantage in the post war economy. The United States was becoming extremely adept at building large, heavy aircraft. Aircraft that could be quickly redesigned into airliners and cargo planes. The British were making fighters. Which after the war, could be redesigned into…. Crop dusters?
Seeing how much of a disadvantage his own nation would be at when the war concluded he urged the development of a large transatlantic airliner in order to secure the needs of postwar British commerce and transportation. The Bristol Aeroplane Company delivered.
While it didn’t grace the runway for initial takeoff until 1949, the aptly named Bristol Brabazon, was the largest land aircraft ever produced at the time. It was longer, wider, and heavier than even a B29 Superfortress. As test pilot Bill Pegg pointed the nose up and lifted the monstrous aircraft into the sky he said simply, “Good God- it works!”
Making a plane that heavy fly is no easy task. Engineers worked tirelessly to strip every unnecessary bit of metal from the frame to save weight. A new hangar had to be built to house it. Eight engines were needed to power the craft. In order to maneuver the large heavy parts, electronic control systems and hydrolics were incorporated, both of which would not be common place on other aircraft for two decades.
Despite all of the challenges, as Bill Pegg said, it worked. And it worked beautifully. Its performance comfortably matched specifications, and although some strengthening was deemed necessary around the propellor mountings, the design was free of serious problems. Test pilots delighted in the aircraft’s pleasant flying characteristics while test passengers enthused about the smooth ride and spacious interior. The experience was a far cry from the buttock-numbing bumpiness of the older generation of piston-engine airliners. It seemed certain that the Bristol Aircraft Company had a hit on its hands
By most all metrics, the Brabazon was the finest aircraft in the world. It was the best, most modern aircraft available. Yet despite all of its advances and capacity, nobody wanted it.
With better marketing and an increased passenger capacity the Bristol Brabazon might have been successful. Yet the concept of mass air travel was alien to populations on both sides of the Atlantic in the late 1940s. One or two British airlines flirted with the aircraft, but ultimately deemed her too costly and high-maintenance for their purposes. Europe was too impoverished, while America was busy developing her own advanced airliners such as the Boeing 707. Aircraft procurement tended to take place along national lines, and it was crucial that the Brabazon gained orders from a British airline if it was to succeed. When this failed to happen, its fate was sealed.
It seems likely that the Brabazon’s futuristic features and large size were an integral part of its undoing. When the 747 took to the skies at the end of the swinging sixties, the travelling public were earning more and aspiring to join the jet-set– in short, the world was waiting for such an aircraft. The immense aircraft offered technologies and amenities which were simply not in demand. The world was not yet ready. The Brabazon was a great idea, but it came too soon, and as a result, the plane was a catastrophic failure from which the Bristol Aeroplane Company never recovered.
Last week the United States officially fell into a recession. I get a lot of questions when that happens, but the most common question is this; “What should I be buying into now while things are down?” My answer is not a list of stocks. It’s not a real estate market. It’s not even the world famous i-bonds. I respond with a question. “How much do you have in your emergency fund?”
Recessions can indeed be wonderful buying opportunities. I love when people ask me what they should be buying when the market is down. But before you can think about what you should be buying, you need to make sure you are ready. While many signs point towards this recession being fairly mild, the reality is that we just never know, exactly how bad things may get. Because of that uncertainty, the absolute most important thing you can do, is ensure that you have a safety net to fall into if things get bad.
If you never end up needing that safety net, and I hope you don’t you can always invest it later. But if you find yourself needing a safety net, but not having one, the result will be catastrophic.
1949 was too soon. The Brabazon was a complete failure. In 1970 the time was right. Boeing launched the 747, and it sent them into the stratosphere. Be like Boeing and wait until the time is right.